On Wednesday apparently the Liberals will be naming an interim leader for their federal caucus. If the rumours are correct and the party expects to wait for a year or so before holding a leadership convention to elect a permanent leader, than it stands that the best candidate for the interim job would be somewhat not expected to hold ambitions towards the permanent role, or has outstanding factors at play. In this case, I feel that the best candidate for the job would probably be someone like John McCallum who is likely too old to challenge for the leadership. I don't think that the interim leadership is as critical as some seem to think and hence the choice isn't as important, so long as it isn't someone who has obvious intentions on the permanent position.
As for the permanent position, I think that the Liberals are in an unenviable position; considering the rump nature of their caucus and the diminishing amount of attention that they're going to be receiving from the media. Choosing a 'blue liberal' is a mistake and given that the election on Monday was primarily one of realignment on the left in Canada; choosing a centrist is a mistake that the NDP will punish them for through consolidation of the progressive vote. Aside from ideological questions, there has to be significant attention paid to rectifying the most obvious and glaring problem with the Liberals, which is the increasingly non-national nature of the party. It's clear that the Liberals can't expect to put together a challenge for prominence again by merely sweeping through Anglophone Montreal and Toronto, they'd be stuck at where they were during the 1990s. There has to be work done in the west to rebuild what is now a completely discredited vision of Liberalism on the prairies. The western Liberals are a mess, and have been reduced to two marginal seats in downtown Vancouver, then Wascana and another marginal seat in Winnipeg North. The only member from the west which I figure has the stature to be a leader is Ralph Goodale, yet his incapability to speak French is a problem that makes this impossible.
It stands to reason as well that the Liberals will prefer someone younger without the taint of the endless internal wars of the 1990s and 2000s. There will be a lot of people tempted to throw Justin Trudeau into the leadership. I think he's too intelligent to be convinced by the party elite that this could in any way work. Not to say that he himself is a bad candidate, but the family baggage he carries just isn't going to fly in the country, especially if the party wants to be relevant outside of Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Dominic Leblanc's candidacy I feel is stronger than Trudeau's. He was House Leader under Martin and has expressed leadership ambitions before. He's also francophone, although not from Quebec. David McGuinty's candidacy will be a problem if the Ontario Liberals lose the next election.
Bob Rae is probably the most prominent Liberal left in their benches. His candidacy is strong because he has experience governing the province of Ontario before, although this is also a weakness, since Ontarians remember how well that fared. The most problematic part of his candidacy is that he's low hanging fruit as far as the Conservatives and NDP are concerned. Both parties can dump a lot on him and by proxy the Liberals in general. Rae's position as a former NDPer though, along with some comments before on merger talks puts him in a position to facilitate discussions with the New Democrats towards closer co-operation between the two parties. Something I feel will be important for left wing politics moving forward at the federal level.
Probably my most preferable candidate other than Rae is Denis Coderre. A francophone Quebecker who sits in a tough riding and has since turned it into a Liberal fortress over the years. The Liberals absolutely have to work at rebuilding the party in francophone Quebec, and a leader from Quebec is likely needed to attempt this at the very least. Coderre was Ignatieff's Quebec lieutenant before a spat over the nomination of candidates and gained a reputation for being a fighter in Parliament, something that will be appreciated given now that the Conservatives hold a majority.
Overall the Liberals have good bench strength, but many of its candidates carry at times a significant amount of baggage. My more preferable candidates at this point are Rae or Coderre.
Showing posts with label Pierre Trudeau. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pierre Trudeau. Show all posts
Sunday, 8 May 2011
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Picking up the Pieces
Well first off, I don't think we'll ever experience a more bizarre and interesting evening electorally for a long time. This electoral campaign began originally as a boring and dull replay of 2008 and to a lesser degree 2006, even politicians and pundits lamented upon the seemingly irrelevancy of going to the polls. The trends were there for Canadian politics to structurally settle into the circumstances of increasingly durable minority status. All parties stuck in a perpetual circumstance in which nobody could break out of the regionalized vote splits across the country. This wasn't the case in 2011 for two reasons. The Liberal Party of Canada and the Bloc Quebecois both collapsed.
The most important take away is that the Liberal Party is finished as a party of government. Its supporters will likely continue to fight to restore the party to its former glory, however that's likely to merely produce another vote split along the left in the next election, whenever that may be. The party has faced electoral calamity before in 1917 when Laurier's Liberals were devastated by the Conservatives' Unionist government during the First World War, again in 1958 under Pearson and then in 1984 under Turner. In all cases the Liberals rode a weak opposition on the left, their brand as a natural governing party as well as the maintenance of regional electoral 'bases' to sustain them until their Conservative opponents imploded. Montreal and Toronto provided these bases in the past, but in 2011 the Conservatives and NDP smashed into the Greater Toronto Area, while the NDP broke through taking most of Montreal. These bases are no longer reliably Liberal, and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton don't provide adequate springboards to electoral success in Central Canada. Atlantic Canada has in the past been willing to hold onto the traditional parties of government. They did so with the Progressive Conservatives during the 1990s and appear to have done so with the Liberals this election. Old habits die hard, but they do die, and the NDP is creeping ahead of the Liberals in urban areas.
Another important factor for the Liberals is that they are no longer a national party. Despite the terrible results in Ontario, finishing third behind the NDP, the Liberals finished fourth in Quebec in number of votes and barely held onto seats in Vancouver. The Liberals were increasingly a party dependent since 1993 upon good results in Ontario and in particular upon vote splits between Reform/Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The Chretien majority in 1993 won every seat in Ontario except for one and then did it again in 1997. Once the Alliance and PCs merged in 2003 this wasn't possible anymore and predictably the artificial nature of Liberal dominance in Ontario was revealed.
If the Liberals return to prominence, it will not be a result of their own actions, but rather a result of mistakes made by the New Democrats. The New Democrats face the challenge of attempting to manage a gigantic new caucus now dominated by 57 new MPs from Quebec alone, many of whom were 'posts' placed there to fill the party slate. It still seems inconceivable what took place last night, but the precedents are there in Canadian history for rapid and jarring switches in party allegiance amongst Quebecers. Diefenbaker's Quebec caucus in 1958 and then under Mulroney in 1984 saw Quebec flips from strong red to blue almost instantly. In 1993 the Bloc Quebecois won francophone Quebec and reduced the Liberals to mostly Anglophone Montreal. The NDP's near sweep of the province is within that tradition. It's important to note however that as sudden as these movements occurred, they often switched back. The NDP will be hard pressed to maintain its strength in Quebec, however if the primary attribute of Francophone support for the NDP is ideological then it is conceivable that the new relationship will be more durable then people think.
The NDP also faces the challenge of attempting to build its party constituency in Ontario, likely over the dying husk of the Liberal Party. It is in Southern Ontario however, where there is room for local agreements between the Liberals and the NDP to take place. There's already consideration floating around for mergers between the two parties (they could be called the "Progressives". You read it here first!), however I figure that a better solution in the short term might be to have the two parties agree not to run candidates against each other in some ridings where vote splitting was particularly jarring. This was also a problem in Manitoba where Anita Neville lost her seat to the Tories probably because of a strong showing from the New Democrats in Winnipeg South Centre.
I think eventually there will be some kind of temporary or permanent relationship between the New Democrats and the Liberals in the future, there are simply far too many similarities ideologically between the two parties, especially as Jack Layton has moved the NDP towards the centre during his leadership. This is probably likely to accelerate as he settles into Stornoway. The idea floating around the interwebs that the NDP is somehow a 'socialist' party is a joke, either perpetuated by attempts to label the New Democrats as either too 'radical' for Canada or simply by historical and political ignorance. Chantal Hebert's analysis that Canadian politics is likely to polarize within a left-wing and right-wing two party system is astute and likely on the money as to how events will play out in the future. It also means though that the 'Liberals in a hurry' will be replacing the Liberals as the only really relevant left-wing party, isolating the Liberals in the centre where they will likely 'go with the flow' and have little direction ideologically.
This election sets up an interesting future in Canadian politics, where we'll likely see the development of a two-party system based around polarized ideological platforms. The creation of a Conservative majority without the involvement of Quebec as a fundamental part of it might have been more threatening to national unity if the NDP had not of almost swept the province. Providing in the process a counter-balance to Quebec's dislocation within Canadian power politics by offering it a place within the opposition under the expectation that the NDP will challenge someday for the reins of government. For political scientists and historians of Canadian history, this election will likely become one of the most written about in Canadian academia. The randomness of it all, including the enormous ramifications for the ideological disposition of Canadian public life and the end of the 'Big Red Machine' as a party of government.
The most important take away is that the Liberal Party is finished as a party of government. Its supporters will likely continue to fight to restore the party to its former glory, however that's likely to merely produce another vote split along the left in the next election, whenever that may be. The party has faced electoral calamity before in 1917 when Laurier's Liberals were devastated by the Conservatives' Unionist government during the First World War, again in 1958 under Pearson and then in 1984 under Turner. In all cases the Liberals rode a weak opposition on the left, their brand as a natural governing party as well as the maintenance of regional electoral 'bases' to sustain them until their Conservative opponents imploded. Montreal and Toronto provided these bases in the past, but in 2011 the Conservatives and NDP smashed into the Greater Toronto Area, while the NDP broke through taking most of Montreal. These bases are no longer reliably Liberal, and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton don't provide adequate springboards to electoral success in Central Canada. Atlantic Canada has in the past been willing to hold onto the traditional parties of government. They did so with the Progressive Conservatives during the 1990s and appear to have done so with the Liberals this election. Old habits die hard, but they do die, and the NDP is creeping ahead of the Liberals in urban areas.
Another important factor for the Liberals is that they are no longer a national party. Despite the terrible results in Ontario, finishing third behind the NDP, the Liberals finished fourth in Quebec in number of votes and barely held onto seats in Vancouver. The Liberals were increasingly a party dependent since 1993 upon good results in Ontario and in particular upon vote splits between Reform/Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The Chretien majority in 1993 won every seat in Ontario except for one and then did it again in 1997. Once the Alliance and PCs merged in 2003 this wasn't possible anymore and predictably the artificial nature of Liberal dominance in Ontario was revealed.
If the Liberals return to prominence, it will not be a result of their own actions, but rather a result of mistakes made by the New Democrats. The New Democrats face the challenge of attempting to manage a gigantic new caucus now dominated by 57 new MPs from Quebec alone, many of whom were 'posts' placed there to fill the party slate. It still seems inconceivable what took place last night, but the precedents are there in Canadian history for rapid and jarring switches in party allegiance amongst Quebecers. Diefenbaker's Quebec caucus in 1958 and then under Mulroney in 1984 saw Quebec flips from strong red to blue almost instantly. In 1993 the Bloc Quebecois won francophone Quebec and reduced the Liberals to mostly Anglophone Montreal. The NDP's near sweep of the province is within that tradition. It's important to note however that as sudden as these movements occurred, they often switched back. The NDP will be hard pressed to maintain its strength in Quebec, however if the primary attribute of Francophone support for the NDP is ideological then it is conceivable that the new relationship will be more durable then people think.
The NDP also faces the challenge of attempting to build its party constituency in Ontario, likely over the dying husk of the Liberal Party. It is in Southern Ontario however, where there is room for local agreements between the Liberals and the NDP to take place. There's already consideration floating around for mergers between the two parties (they could be called the "Progressives". You read it here first!), however I figure that a better solution in the short term might be to have the two parties agree not to run candidates against each other in some ridings where vote splitting was particularly jarring. This was also a problem in Manitoba where Anita Neville lost her seat to the Tories probably because of a strong showing from the New Democrats in Winnipeg South Centre.
I think eventually there will be some kind of temporary or permanent relationship between the New Democrats and the Liberals in the future, there are simply far too many similarities ideologically between the two parties, especially as Jack Layton has moved the NDP towards the centre during his leadership. This is probably likely to accelerate as he settles into Stornoway. The idea floating around the interwebs that the NDP is somehow a 'socialist' party is a joke, either perpetuated by attempts to label the New Democrats as either too 'radical' for Canada or simply by historical and political ignorance. Chantal Hebert's analysis that Canadian politics is likely to polarize within a left-wing and right-wing two party system is astute and likely on the money as to how events will play out in the future. It also means though that the 'Liberals in a hurry' will be replacing the Liberals as the only really relevant left-wing party, isolating the Liberals in the centre where they will likely 'go with the flow' and have little direction ideologically.
This election sets up an interesting future in Canadian politics, where we'll likely see the development of a two-party system based around polarized ideological platforms. The creation of a Conservative majority without the involvement of Quebec as a fundamental part of it might have been more threatening to national unity if the NDP had not of almost swept the province. Providing in the process a counter-balance to Quebec's dislocation within Canadian power politics by offering it a place within the opposition under the expectation that the NDP will challenge someday for the reins of government. For political scientists and historians of Canadian history, this election will likely become one of the most written about in Canadian academia. The randomness of it all, including the enormous ramifications for the ideological disposition of Canadian public life and the end of the 'Big Red Machine' as a party of government.
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