Monte Solberg does a pretty good job of beating the Liberals over the head on the issue of their current 'big idea' problems. I don't see anything particularly wrong with anything he says in this article. The Liberals aren't going to get anywhere through endlessly barking about how 'centrist' they are.
If anything is true, it is that the Tories are winning the 'battle of ideas'. At first glance it seems ridiculous that Don Cherry is becoming a focal figure in a redefinition of Canadian nationalism, but conservatives have been working steadily to change Canadians' perceptions of themselves; in particular regarding the military and Canada's role in the world. This new 'combative' form of Canadian nationalism doesn't bode well, especially given how prone it may turn out to be towards misogynous perceptions of women and 'nativistic' sensibilities regarding multi-ethnic immigration from abroad.
Also, remember those days when Canadians were willing to finance significant expansions of the Universities, to send our youth to far away lands on the public dime to learn about the world and spread Canadian values? Trudeau certainly believed that these were worthy of the government's attention. He also believed in reducing the economic influence of the United States in Canada. Nowadays we see Liberals endlessly talking about how awesome they were at hacking apart services in order to solve our national calamity, the dreaded budget deficit. And running on the continued generic expansion of free trade reinforces all of the Conservative narratives. After all, it's so much easier as a conservative to tear apart the welfare state when you can get progressives to do it for you.
The Liberals increasingly no longer have the ability to agitate for progressive ideals, especially economic ones, with any kind of authority or credibility. Their entire history since Chretien won a majority in 1993 has been to adhere to all of the long-term structural decisions made to the economy by the Conservatives. All of the Liberal ideals of resisting free trade and American domination; Canadian nationalism based around the protection of social services. Canadians are only willing to accept deficit spending grudgingly, a considerable achievement in working public opinion over the past decades on the part of the political right. Now the Conservatives can use that advantage to advocate spending cuts over any form of upward flexibility in tax rates, putting progressives in a continual bind.
To respond to this long-term process I think the replacement of the Liberals with the NDP is a beneficial thing. It's difficult to agitate for progressive social democratic ideals when the primary left-wing party at the federal level is full of people like John Manley, Paul Martin and other 'blue liberals' who have been at the forefront of bashing away at the institutions critical to the long-term well being of Canadians. It'll be a difficult slog, but re-vitalization of the movement with the inclusion of organized labour from the ground up as well as the potential re-introduction of Quebec's significant progressive movement into the national sphere are promising signs.
Showing posts with label Conservatives. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conservatives. Show all posts
Tuesday, 17 May 2011
Sunday, 15 May 2011
The Separatist NDP Quebec Caucus
Jean-Louis Fortin of QMI concern trolls the NDP's Quebec caucus:
During the 1995 referendum on independence 49.4% of Quebeckers who voted did so in favour of independence. I suppose that these individuals should be discounted then from federalist politics forever for the future? Painted and smeared by the broad brush of supporting Quebec's national aspirations at a time when it seemed as if the bruised relations between Quebec and the rest of Canada could never be mended again. Shouldn't it then be viewed as a significant good sign for Canadian national unity that Quebeckers who once voted to separate from the country are now embracing a federalist party over a sovereigntist one?
As pogge noted the other day, there will be a lot of journalists aiming to undermine the NDP by conjuring up all sorts of 'tid bits' on whatever these new NDP MPs from Quebec might have said or did say sixteen years ago. However, there's also a tinge of elitist condensation from the two establishment parties (the Conservatives and the Liberals) that the NDP with all of its new 'brat pack' MPs cannot possibly expect to be capable and competent enough of 'managing Quebec' when they themselves failed with almost catastrophic consequences for the country. They're the new players to Quebec federal politics who have had no electoral success in the past, let alone traction amongst the Quebec public. Now after a single election the party now holds 59 of Quebec's 75 seats in the House of Commons.
Many have and will say that the inclusion of former separatists into the NDP's Quebec big tent is going to cause chaos within the party. I believe though that it's possible that the Quebec caucus as well as the grassroots that the NDP is going to be working hard to development, could become a source of policy development in the future on the political left in this country; in addition to acting as a sort of forge for the construction of a consensus for the task of bringing Quebec into the Constitution.
MONTREAL - Quebecers elected a good number of separatists when they voted en masse for NDP candidates in the May 2 federal election - perhaps without even knowing it.
Apparently the running definition of a 'separatist' in Quebec is someone who has at any time in their lives supported the cause of or voted for a separatist party, regardless of current opinions:Alexandre Boulerice, the NDP's new MP for Montreal's Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie riding, proudly confessed to QMI Agency he continues to campaign for Quebec Solidaire, the provincial leftist party that promotes independence.
Gilles Rheaume, Quebec independence activist and spokesman for a group that claims to fight "Canadian francophobia," said he isn't surprised by the number of Quebec NDP MPs who are separatists or who had professed support for sovereignty.
"(The NDP) was infiltrated by sovereigntists since the beginning of the 1990s," Rheaume said.
Rheaume believes that the NDP has been 'infiltrated' by separatists; maybe akin to how the party was 'infiltrated' by the democratic socialist wing of the party, "The Waffle", during the 1970s? How well did that work out for that particular entryist group?Rheaume estimated at least a dozen new NDP MPs voted yes in the 1995 referendum, or had supported the sovereigntist movement in some way.
During the 1995 referendum on independence 49.4% of Quebeckers who voted did so in favour of independence. I suppose that these individuals should be discounted then from federalist politics forever for the future? Painted and smeared by the broad brush of supporting Quebec's national aspirations at a time when it seemed as if the bruised relations between Quebec and the rest of Canada could never be mended again. Shouldn't it then be viewed as a significant good sign for Canadian national unity that Quebeckers who once voted to separate from the country are now embracing a federalist party over a sovereigntist one?
As pogge noted the other day, there will be a lot of journalists aiming to undermine the NDP by conjuring up all sorts of 'tid bits' on whatever these new NDP MPs from Quebec might have said or did say sixteen years ago. However, there's also a tinge of elitist condensation from the two establishment parties (the Conservatives and the Liberals) that the NDP with all of its new 'brat pack' MPs cannot possibly expect to be capable and competent enough of 'managing Quebec' when they themselves failed with almost catastrophic consequences for the country. They're the new players to Quebec federal politics who have had no electoral success in the past, let alone traction amongst the Quebec public. Now after a single election the party now holds 59 of Quebec's 75 seats in the House of Commons.
Many have and will say that the inclusion of former separatists into the NDP's Quebec big tent is going to cause chaos within the party. I believe though that it's possible that the Quebec caucus as well as the grassroots that the NDP is going to be working hard to development, could become a source of policy development in the future on the political left in this country; in addition to acting as a sort of forge for the construction of a consensus for the task of bringing Quebec into the Constitution.
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Picking up the Pieces
Well first off, I don't think we'll ever experience a more bizarre and interesting evening electorally for a long time. This electoral campaign began originally as a boring and dull replay of 2008 and to a lesser degree 2006, even politicians and pundits lamented upon the seemingly irrelevancy of going to the polls. The trends were there for Canadian politics to structurally settle into the circumstances of increasingly durable minority status. All parties stuck in a perpetual circumstance in which nobody could break out of the regionalized vote splits across the country. This wasn't the case in 2011 for two reasons. The Liberal Party of Canada and the Bloc Quebecois both collapsed.
The most important take away is that the Liberal Party is finished as a party of government. Its supporters will likely continue to fight to restore the party to its former glory, however that's likely to merely produce another vote split along the left in the next election, whenever that may be. The party has faced electoral calamity before in 1917 when Laurier's Liberals were devastated by the Conservatives' Unionist government during the First World War, again in 1958 under Pearson and then in 1984 under Turner. In all cases the Liberals rode a weak opposition on the left, their brand as a natural governing party as well as the maintenance of regional electoral 'bases' to sustain them until their Conservative opponents imploded. Montreal and Toronto provided these bases in the past, but in 2011 the Conservatives and NDP smashed into the Greater Toronto Area, while the NDP broke through taking most of Montreal. These bases are no longer reliably Liberal, and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton don't provide adequate springboards to electoral success in Central Canada. Atlantic Canada has in the past been willing to hold onto the traditional parties of government. They did so with the Progressive Conservatives during the 1990s and appear to have done so with the Liberals this election. Old habits die hard, but they do die, and the NDP is creeping ahead of the Liberals in urban areas.
Another important factor for the Liberals is that they are no longer a national party. Despite the terrible results in Ontario, finishing third behind the NDP, the Liberals finished fourth in Quebec in number of votes and barely held onto seats in Vancouver. The Liberals were increasingly a party dependent since 1993 upon good results in Ontario and in particular upon vote splits between Reform/Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The Chretien majority in 1993 won every seat in Ontario except for one and then did it again in 1997. Once the Alliance and PCs merged in 2003 this wasn't possible anymore and predictably the artificial nature of Liberal dominance in Ontario was revealed.
If the Liberals return to prominence, it will not be a result of their own actions, but rather a result of mistakes made by the New Democrats. The New Democrats face the challenge of attempting to manage a gigantic new caucus now dominated by 57 new MPs from Quebec alone, many of whom were 'posts' placed there to fill the party slate. It still seems inconceivable what took place last night, but the precedents are there in Canadian history for rapid and jarring switches in party allegiance amongst Quebecers. Diefenbaker's Quebec caucus in 1958 and then under Mulroney in 1984 saw Quebec flips from strong red to blue almost instantly. In 1993 the Bloc Quebecois won francophone Quebec and reduced the Liberals to mostly Anglophone Montreal. The NDP's near sweep of the province is within that tradition. It's important to note however that as sudden as these movements occurred, they often switched back. The NDP will be hard pressed to maintain its strength in Quebec, however if the primary attribute of Francophone support for the NDP is ideological then it is conceivable that the new relationship will be more durable then people think.
The NDP also faces the challenge of attempting to build its party constituency in Ontario, likely over the dying husk of the Liberal Party. It is in Southern Ontario however, where there is room for local agreements between the Liberals and the NDP to take place. There's already consideration floating around for mergers between the two parties (they could be called the "Progressives". You read it here first!), however I figure that a better solution in the short term might be to have the two parties agree not to run candidates against each other in some ridings where vote splitting was particularly jarring. This was also a problem in Manitoba where Anita Neville lost her seat to the Tories probably because of a strong showing from the New Democrats in Winnipeg South Centre.
I think eventually there will be some kind of temporary or permanent relationship between the New Democrats and the Liberals in the future, there are simply far too many similarities ideologically between the two parties, especially as Jack Layton has moved the NDP towards the centre during his leadership. This is probably likely to accelerate as he settles into Stornoway. The idea floating around the interwebs that the NDP is somehow a 'socialist' party is a joke, either perpetuated by attempts to label the New Democrats as either too 'radical' for Canada or simply by historical and political ignorance. Chantal Hebert's analysis that Canadian politics is likely to polarize within a left-wing and right-wing two party system is astute and likely on the money as to how events will play out in the future. It also means though that the 'Liberals in a hurry' will be replacing the Liberals as the only really relevant left-wing party, isolating the Liberals in the centre where they will likely 'go with the flow' and have little direction ideologically.
This election sets up an interesting future in Canadian politics, where we'll likely see the development of a two-party system based around polarized ideological platforms. The creation of a Conservative majority without the involvement of Quebec as a fundamental part of it might have been more threatening to national unity if the NDP had not of almost swept the province. Providing in the process a counter-balance to Quebec's dislocation within Canadian power politics by offering it a place within the opposition under the expectation that the NDP will challenge someday for the reins of government. For political scientists and historians of Canadian history, this election will likely become one of the most written about in Canadian academia. The randomness of it all, including the enormous ramifications for the ideological disposition of Canadian public life and the end of the 'Big Red Machine' as a party of government.
The most important take away is that the Liberal Party is finished as a party of government. Its supporters will likely continue to fight to restore the party to its former glory, however that's likely to merely produce another vote split along the left in the next election, whenever that may be. The party has faced electoral calamity before in 1917 when Laurier's Liberals were devastated by the Conservatives' Unionist government during the First World War, again in 1958 under Pearson and then in 1984 under Turner. In all cases the Liberals rode a weak opposition on the left, their brand as a natural governing party as well as the maintenance of regional electoral 'bases' to sustain them until their Conservative opponents imploded. Montreal and Toronto provided these bases in the past, but in 2011 the Conservatives and NDP smashed into the Greater Toronto Area, while the NDP broke through taking most of Montreal. These bases are no longer reliably Liberal, and Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Cape Breton don't provide adequate springboards to electoral success in Central Canada. Atlantic Canada has in the past been willing to hold onto the traditional parties of government. They did so with the Progressive Conservatives during the 1990s and appear to have done so with the Liberals this election. Old habits die hard, but they do die, and the NDP is creeping ahead of the Liberals in urban areas.
Another important factor for the Liberals is that they are no longer a national party. Despite the terrible results in Ontario, finishing third behind the NDP, the Liberals finished fourth in Quebec in number of votes and barely held onto seats in Vancouver. The Liberals were increasingly a party dependent since 1993 upon good results in Ontario and in particular upon vote splits between Reform/Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The Chretien majority in 1993 won every seat in Ontario except for one and then did it again in 1997. Once the Alliance and PCs merged in 2003 this wasn't possible anymore and predictably the artificial nature of Liberal dominance in Ontario was revealed.
If the Liberals return to prominence, it will not be a result of their own actions, but rather a result of mistakes made by the New Democrats. The New Democrats face the challenge of attempting to manage a gigantic new caucus now dominated by 57 new MPs from Quebec alone, many of whom were 'posts' placed there to fill the party slate. It still seems inconceivable what took place last night, but the precedents are there in Canadian history for rapid and jarring switches in party allegiance amongst Quebecers. Diefenbaker's Quebec caucus in 1958 and then under Mulroney in 1984 saw Quebec flips from strong red to blue almost instantly. In 1993 the Bloc Quebecois won francophone Quebec and reduced the Liberals to mostly Anglophone Montreal. The NDP's near sweep of the province is within that tradition. It's important to note however that as sudden as these movements occurred, they often switched back. The NDP will be hard pressed to maintain its strength in Quebec, however if the primary attribute of Francophone support for the NDP is ideological then it is conceivable that the new relationship will be more durable then people think.
The NDP also faces the challenge of attempting to build its party constituency in Ontario, likely over the dying husk of the Liberal Party. It is in Southern Ontario however, where there is room for local agreements between the Liberals and the NDP to take place. There's already consideration floating around for mergers between the two parties (they could be called the "Progressives". You read it here first!), however I figure that a better solution in the short term might be to have the two parties agree not to run candidates against each other in some ridings where vote splitting was particularly jarring. This was also a problem in Manitoba where Anita Neville lost her seat to the Tories probably because of a strong showing from the New Democrats in Winnipeg South Centre.
I think eventually there will be some kind of temporary or permanent relationship between the New Democrats and the Liberals in the future, there are simply far too many similarities ideologically between the two parties, especially as Jack Layton has moved the NDP towards the centre during his leadership. This is probably likely to accelerate as he settles into Stornoway. The idea floating around the interwebs that the NDP is somehow a 'socialist' party is a joke, either perpetuated by attempts to label the New Democrats as either too 'radical' for Canada or simply by historical and political ignorance. Chantal Hebert's analysis that Canadian politics is likely to polarize within a left-wing and right-wing two party system is astute and likely on the money as to how events will play out in the future. It also means though that the 'Liberals in a hurry' will be replacing the Liberals as the only really relevant left-wing party, isolating the Liberals in the centre where they will likely 'go with the flow' and have little direction ideologically.
This election sets up an interesting future in Canadian politics, where we'll likely see the development of a two-party system based around polarized ideological platforms. The creation of a Conservative majority without the involvement of Quebec as a fundamental part of it might have been more threatening to national unity if the NDP had not of almost swept the province. Providing in the process a counter-balance to Quebec's dislocation within Canadian power politics by offering it a place within the opposition under the expectation that the NDP will challenge someday for the reins of government. For political scientists and historians of Canadian history, this election will likely become one of the most written about in Canadian academia. The randomness of it all, including the enormous ramifications for the ideological disposition of Canadian public life and the end of the 'Big Red Machine' as a party of government.
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