On Wednesday apparently the Liberals will be naming an interim leader for their federal caucus. If the rumours are correct and the party expects to wait for a year or so before holding a leadership convention to elect a permanent leader, than it stands that the best candidate for the interim job would be somewhat not expected to hold ambitions towards the permanent role, or has outstanding factors at play. In this case, I feel that the best candidate for the job would probably be someone like John McCallum who is likely too old to challenge for the leadership. I don't think that the interim leadership is as critical as some seem to think and hence the choice isn't as important, so long as it isn't someone who has obvious intentions on the permanent position.
As for the permanent position, I think that the Liberals are in an unenviable position; considering the rump nature of their caucus and the diminishing amount of attention that they're going to be receiving from the media. Choosing a 'blue liberal' is a mistake and given that the election on Monday was primarily one of realignment on the left in Canada; choosing a centrist is a mistake that the NDP will punish them for through consolidation of the progressive vote. Aside from ideological questions, there has to be significant attention paid to rectifying the most obvious and glaring problem with the Liberals, which is the increasingly non-national nature of the party. It's clear that the Liberals can't expect to put together a challenge for prominence again by merely sweeping through Anglophone Montreal and Toronto, they'd be stuck at where they were during the 1990s. There has to be work done in the west to rebuild what is now a completely discredited vision of Liberalism on the prairies. The western Liberals are a mess, and have been reduced to two marginal seats in downtown Vancouver, then Wascana and another marginal seat in Winnipeg North. The only member from the west which I figure has the stature to be a leader is Ralph Goodale, yet his incapability to speak French is a problem that makes this impossible.
It stands to reason as well that the Liberals will prefer someone younger without the taint of the endless internal wars of the 1990s and 2000s. There will be a lot of people tempted to throw Justin Trudeau into the leadership. I think he's too intelligent to be convinced by the party elite that this could in any way work. Not to say that he himself is a bad candidate, but the family baggage he carries just isn't going to fly in the country, especially if the party wants to be relevant outside of Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Dominic Leblanc's candidacy I feel is stronger than Trudeau's. He was House Leader under Martin and has expressed leadership ambitions before. He's also francophone, although not from Quebec. David McGuinty's candidacy will be a problem if the Ontario Liberals lose the next election.
Bob Rae is probably the most prominent Liberal left in their benches. His candidacy is strong because he has experience governing the province of Ontario before, although this is also a weakness, since Ontarians remember how well that fared. The most problematic part of his candidacy is that he's low hanging fruit as far as the Conservatives and NDP are concerned. Both parties can dump a lot on him and by proxy the Liberals in general. Rae's position as a former NDPer though, along with some comments before on merger talks puts him in a position to facilitate discussions with the New Democrats towards closer co-operation between the two parties. Something I feel will be important for left wing politics moving forward at the federal level.
Probably my most preferable candidate other than Rae is Denis Coderre. A francophone Quebecker who sits in a tough riding and has since turned it into a Liberal fortress over the years. The Liberals absolutely have to work at rebuilding the party in francophone Quebec, and a leader from Quebec is likely needed to attempt this at the very least. Coderre was Ignatieff's Quebec lieutenant before a spat over the nomination of candidates and gained a reputation for being a fighter in Parliament, something that will be appreciated given now that the Conservatives hold a majority.
Overall the Liberals have good bench strength, but many of its candidates carry at times a significant amount of baggage. My more preferable candidates at this point are Rae or Coderre.
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