Monday 2 May 2011

Live-blogging the Orange Crush

7:31 CST - Polls close here in Manitoba in just under thirty minutes.  Can barely wait at this point!

7:44 - Polls have closed in Atlantic Canada.

8:04 - And now polls have closed here in Manitoba.

8:15 - CBC Newsworld at 8PM was showing results from Atlantic Canada and then 'mysteriously' had technical difficulties, and then went back to a timer waiting until polls closed in British Columbia.  Damn you election laws!

8:31 - Now the blackout is lifted here.  CBC tells me that the Tories and NDP both picked up 3 seats each from the Liberals who've lost 6 total in Atlantic Canada.  Apparently the NDP is leading in the only Quebec seat reporting.

8:35 - Apparently the vote split in Atlantic Canada was 37% for the Tories, 30% for the NDP and 29% for the Liberals.  A six percent increase for the Tories, a three percent increase for the New Democrats and a six percent loss for the Liberals.

8:36 - Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine with 70 out of 235 polls reporting has the New Democrat ahead by a couple thousand votes.

9:00 - It's pretty ugly out there for the left, it seems like the Conservatives may be about to form a majority, and the Liberals have collapsed.  CBC is showing that the NDP is preforming very well early on in Quebec.

9:10 - Quebec is going to look very orange tomorrow, and it appears as if the Bloc has been demolished at the polls.

9:12 - The CBC is indicating that the New Democrats will be forming the Official Opposition after this election.

9:17 - Apparently vacationing in Vegas during a campaign doesn't destroy your election hopes.  Gotta keep that in mind.

9:22 - Michael Ignatieff is losing in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, seems like he may be the victim of a vote split with the NDP and a general sinking in Liberal support.

9:23 - The Bloc appears to be stuck at four seats on the big CBC seat graph thingy.

9:24 - The NDP has pierced 100 seats.

9:25 - This is a bizarre election.  The Tories will likely form a majority based around the West and rural and suburban Ontario, while the NDP will be forming an official opposition based around British Columbia, Quebec and urban Atlantic Canada.  An over 20% swing to the NDP in Quebec.

9:31 - Given how well the NDP has performed in Quebec, a major problem for their caucus in the future is going to be the quantity of neophytes being elected.  A significant challenge for retaining such enormous totals in Quebec in the future.

9:33 - With 14 ridings yet to report, thus far its the Conservatives with 153, the NDP with 106, the Liberals with 31 and the Bloc with just 4 seats.

9:35 - The Tories have just passed the magic 155 number.

9:51 - CBC projects a Conservative majority.

10:02 - Looks like May is narrowly ahead in Saanich-Gulf-Islands.

10:10 - Olivia Chow is on the teevee, she seems pretty happy about the result considering that the Conservatives will be forming a majority this evening.

10:20 - Michael Ignatieff giving a pretty good speech, looks like he'll not be returning to Ottawa as he was defeated by the Tories in his seat.  His speech is echoing the party's long history, as befits his academic familiarity with the subject.  I think it'll really sting him in the future to think that he was leader while it proceeded to be demolished at the ballot box and relegated to third party status.

10:26 - Elizabeth May is ahead 45% to Tory Gary Lunn's 36% thus far.  Almost 1,000 votes ahead at this point with 40/245 polls reporting.

10:51 - At this point I'm rather fixated on how well May does.  At this point it appears she will win her seat unless there's a major swing to the Tories.

11:00 - And May wins in Saanich-Gulf-Islands with nearly 48% of the vote tallied thus far.  The first elected Green candidate to the Canadian Parliament.  Good for them.

11:30 - I still can't believe that Ruth Ellen Brosseau won in Berthier-Maskinonge.  That's how strong the NDP was in Quebec.

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